5 April 2013

CANCER - Lifetime Risk of Developing or Dying from Cancer









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The lifetime risk of developing or dying from cancer refers to the chance a person has, over the course of his or her lifetime (from birth to death), of being diagnosed with or dying from cancer. These risk estimates, like annual incidence and mortality data, provide another measure of how widespread cancer is in the United States.

The following tables list lifetime risks of developing and dying from certain cancers for men and women. The information is from the US National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Database, and is based on incidence and mortality data for the United States from 2007 through 2009, the most current years for which data are available.
The risk is expressed both in terms of percent and as odds. For example, the risk that a man will develop bladder cancer during his lifetime is 3.81%. This means he has about 1 chance in 26 of developing bladder cancer (100/3.81 = 26). Put another way, 1 out of every 26 men in the United States will develop bladder cancer during his lifetime.
These numbers are average risks for the overall US population. Your risk may be higher or lower than these numbers, depending on your particular risk factors.

Males

Risk of developing
Risk of dying from
%
1 in
%
1 in
All invasive sites
44.81
2
23.08
4
Bladder (includes in situ)
3.81
26
0.88
114
Brain and nervous system
0.70
143
0.50
200
Breast
0.13
769
0.03
3,333
Colon and rectum
5.17
19
2.11
47
Esophagus
0.81
123
0.78
128
Hodgkin disease
0.25
400
0.04
2,500
Kidney and renal pelvis
2.04
49
0.61
164
Larynx (voice box)
0.60
167
0.21
476
Leukemia
1.59
63
1.02
98
Liver and bile duct
1.18
85
0.83
120
Lung and bronchus
7.77
13
6.74
15
Melanoma of the skin
2.49
40
0.42
238
Multiple myeloma
0.77
130
0.46
217
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma
2.34
43
0.88
114
Oral cavity and pharynx
1.50
67
0.38
263
Pancreas
1.48
68
1.32
76
Prostate
16.15
6
2.75
36
Stomach
1.09
92
0.51
196
Testicles
0.37
270
0.02
5,000
Thyroid
0.52
192
0.05
2,000

Females

Risk of developing
    Risk of dying from
%
1 in
%
1 in
All invasive sites
38.17
3
19.39
5
    Bladder (includes in situ)
    1.15
    87
    0.34
    294
    Brain and nervous system
    0.55
    182
    0.40
    250
    Breast
    12.38
    8
    2.76
    36
    Cervix
    0.68
    147
    0.23
    435
    Colon and rectum
    4.78
    21
    1.94
    52
    Esophagus
    0.23
    435
    0.21
    476
    Hodgkin disease
    0.21
    476
    0.04
    2,500
    Kidney and renal pelvis
    1.20
    83
    0.34
    294
    Larynx (voice box)
    0.14
    714
    0.05
    2,000
    Leukemia
    1.14
    88
    0.71
    141
    Liver and bile duct
    0.49
    204
    0.43
    233
    Lung and bronchus
    6.35
    16
    5.02
    20
    Melanoma of the skin
    1.58
    63
    0.21
    476
    Multiple myeloma
    0.57
    175
    0.37
    270
    Non-Hodgkin lymphoma
    1.93
    52
    0.71
    141
    Oral cavity and pharynx
    0.68
    147
    0.18
    556
    Ovary
    1.38
    72
    1.00
    100
    Pancreas
    1.45
    69
    1.30
    77
    Stomach
    0.66
    152
    0.34
    294
    Thyroid
    1.53
    65
    0.07
    1,429
    Uterine corpus
    2.64
    38
    0.54
    185

References

Howlader N, Noone AM, Krapcho M, Neyman N, Aminou R, Waldron W, Altekruse SF, Kosary CL, Ruhl J, Tatalovich Z, Cho H, Mariotto A, Eisner MP, Lewis DR, Chen HS, Feuer EJ, Cronin KA (eds). SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1975-2009 (Vintage 2009 Populations), National Cancer Institute. Bethesda, MD, http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2009_pops09/, based on November 2011 SEER data submission, posted to the SEER Web site, April 2012.
    Lifetime Risk (Percent) of Being Diagnosed with Cancer by Site and Race/Ethnicity: Males, 18 SEER Areas, 2007-2009 (Table 1.15) and Females, 18 SEER Areas, 2007-2009 (Table 1.16). 2012. Accessed at http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2009_pops09/results_merged/topic_lifetime_risk_diagnosis.pdf on November 28, 2012.
    Lifetime Risk (Percent) of Dying from Cancer by Site and Race/Ethnicity: Males, Total US, 2007-2009 (Table 1.18) and Females, Total US, 2007-2009 (Table 1.19). 2012. Accessed at http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2009_pops09/results_merged/topic_lifetime_risk_death.pdf on November 28, 2012.

Last Medical Review: 11/29/2012
Last Revised: 11/29/2012