EBOLA NEWS - Asia's biggest fear is fear itself

October 21, 2014 1:00 pm JST

Ebola: Asia's biggest fear is fear itself

JON LIDEN

A shrine pays tribute to the dog of a Spanish nursing aide who contracted Ebola. The dog was put down. © AP

This is the big one. For the three West African countries at the heart of the Ebola crisis -- Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia -- the current outbreak of the deadly virus is heading for a catastrophe of unimaginable scale. With infection spreading exponentially, these countries could see over 10,000 total new cases per week by December, the World Health Organization has warned. As strict quarantine is the only known way of limiting contagion, the more cases there are, the harder it is to fight Ebola.

In Asia, where memories linger of the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) scare in 2003, concern about a new and more deadly epidemic is understandable. For now, however, measured responses to the tragedy playing out in West Africa -- and assistance to contain it (China has already sent more than 100 health workers to help) -- seem more appropriate than panic and rash moves to restrict air links and even trade with Africa.

Most flights between West Africa and Asia are from countries not yet gravely affected by Ebola: Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal. Yet, epidemiologists warn that it may be only a matter of time before isolated cases of Ebola reach countries on every continent.

Asian countries learned valuable lessons from the SARS pandemic, and various governments claim they have built the best systems and routines to contain disease outbreaks. They have also learned the benefits of cooperation, and have set up networks to exchange information.

Ironically, the dangers of such outbreaks lie not so much in the arrival of people infected with a disease as in how societies deal with them. Too much fear -- or too much complacency -- makes the difference between quick containment and complete crisis.

The reason Ebola is now spreading beyond Africa, albeit on a minimal scale, to the U.S. and Europe is lack of preparedness and rigor in implementing essential procedures. Ebola can be contained when confirmed or even suspected cases are immediately quarantined. That is a matter of preparation as well as discipline, and explains why a well-resourced health system is as vulnerable as a poor one, as recent cases in Texas and Spain have shown. Being on standby with trained staff and isolation facilities is an expensive, but crucial, way for any country to avoid the mistakes made in the U.S. and Spain.

Death by exclusion?

In Asia, like elsewhere, social exclusion and lack of access to health care are as worrying as complacency. It is estimated that tens of thousands of Africans, most of them Nigerians and Ghanaians, live in Guangzhou Province in China. African traders are also a common sight in several other Asian countries. Many come and go on short-term visas. Research has revealed that these groups have significant problems in accessing health care; either because many overstay their visas, or because they lack health insurance and are often turned away by local services. If any were to contract Ebola before traveling to Asia, legal or social rejection of these individuals would increase the risk they would not seek, nor receive, timely care. This, in turn, would heighten the risk of contagion. 

All experiences with disease outbreaks have shown that sweeping and draconian measures, like flight bans and rounding up of vulnerable groups, are not only futile -- people always find ways to get around them -- but also dangerous. They drive those who should be seeking medical help underground.

This brings us back to the fear factor. The main effect of Ebola on Asia may be felt well before, or even without, a single case on the continent.

SARS showed Asia that the cost of fear by far outstrips the medical costs of an epidemic. In 2003, Asian airlines' losses were estimated at $6 billion, as travelers shunned the region. The tourism industry suffered similarly. A few cases of Ebola in Thailand, for example, could devastate the country's tourism sector. But so could panicked moves by governments to restrict flights to and from Africa -- not least by creating an unwarranted atmosphere of fear.

Asian governments have to walk a fine line. They must deal quickly, openly and effectively with any cases of Ebola that may arrive in coming months. At the same time, they should refrain from futile grandstanding or populist measures, such as travel bans or immigration restrictions, that would only aggravate fear and trigger the exact economic fallout we are all striving to avoid.

Source: http://asia.nikkei.com/