PEOPLE - Africa's population set to double to 2.4billion by 2050

Africa's population set to double to 2.4billion by 2050 

due to better medicine and improved health care

• - Population expected to rise from 1.1billion today to 2.4 billion by 2050
• - Projections assume that family planning will become more widespread
• - Women in sub-Saharan Africa give birth to an average of 5.2 children 
• - In Niger mothers have on average 7.6 children
• - Top 10 countries with the highest fertility are all in sub-Saharan Africa
• 
  

By TOM GARDNER

PUBLISHED: 10:31 GMT, 13 September 2013 | UPDATED: 10:34 GMT, 13 September 2013

Africa's population is set to double to more than 2.4billion over the next few decades due to improved health care and medicines, a new study found.

Sub-Saharan Africa - the world’s poorest region - will record the largest amount of population growth of any area in the world between now and 2050, according to the Population Reference Bureau (PRB).

But the massive baby boom could put huge strain on resources and fledgling economies in some of the world's most deprived areas, the PRB warned.

Care: Wide-reaching vaccination programmes and medical care mean more children are surviving to reach adulthood

And the projected growth in population assumes that family planning will become more widespread in regions where, for religious or cultural reasons, contraception has not been widely adopted.

The 10 countries worldwide with the highest fertility are all in sub-Saharan Africa. 

Today, women in sub-Saharan Africa average 5.2 children, a rate that rises as high as 7.6 in Niger. 

And improved access to medicine and health care mean millions more of these children will now survive to adulthood. 

Wendy Baldwin, the organisation's president and CEO, said: 'Nearly all of that growth will be in the 51 countries of sub-Saharan Africa, the region’s poorest.

'Rapid population growth makes it difficult for economies to create enough jobs to lift large numbers of people out of poverty.'

In addition to high birth rates, the region’s population is also quite young, with 43 percent of the population below age 15.

Population rise: Improvements in medicine and health care are leading to more children surviving infancy in sub-Saharan Africa (File picture)

Devastation: Famine and illness had meant many children died long before they could go on to become mothers and fathers

Carl Haub, senior demographer and co-author of the data sheet, said: 'Given its youthful population, future population growth in Africa will depend upon the degree to which the parents of tomorrow use family planning.

'The projections that we cite assume that family planning will become more widespread. If not, Africa’s population will grow more rapidly, further constraining efforts to address poverty, create jobs, and protect the environment.'

This year’s Data Sheet provides detailed information on 20 population, health, and environment indicators for more than 200 countries, and has a special focus on wealth and income inequality. 

Developing countries tend to have wide income gaps between rich and poor that are associated with dramatic differences in fertility and health. 

In Uganda, women from the poorest fifth of families have twice as many children as those from the wealthiest fifth. 

And children from the poorest families are much more likely to die before turning 5 than their counterparts in the wealthiest families.

PRB’s 2013 World Population Data Sheet shows the stark contrasts between rich and poor countries, illustrated by comparing Niger and the Netherlands.

THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDE: NIGER AND NETHERLANDS

                                                                                                            Niger                                   Netherlands

Population (2013)                                                     16.9 million                           16.8 million
Projected Population (2050)                                     65.8 million                           17.9 million
2050 Projected Population as a Multiple of 2013      3.9                                        1.1
Lifetime Births per Woman                                        7.6                                        1.7
Annual Births                                                             845,000                                176,000
Annual Deaths                                                          195,000                                 141,000
% of Population Below Age 15                                  50%                                       17%
% of Population Ages 65+ (2013)                             3%                                         16%
% of Population Ages 65+ (projected 2050)             3%                                         27%
Life Expectancy at Birth (all)                                     57 years                                81 years
Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 live births)               51                                          3.7
Annual Number of Infant Deaths                               43,000                                   650

Even though the two countries have almost the same population size today, Niger is projected to nearly quadruple its population from about 17 million today to 66 million in 2050. The Netherlands’ population will likely grow very slowly from 17 million to 18 million over that same time.

At the root of this 'demographic divide' are differences in the average number of births per woman and the share of the population in their childbearing years. 

Niger’s total fertility rate of 7.6 lifetime births per woman is more than four times the Netherlands’ rate of 1.7 per woman. 

One-half of Niger’s population is younger than age 15, compared with 17 percent of the Netherlands’ population.